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Regular
vs. Progressive Jacks-or-Better Video Poker
By Henry Tamburin
A video poker player sent me an interesting question in which she asked whether
it is better to play the regular jacks-or-better video poker machines with a
fixed payoff for the royal flush or the progressive machines that pay increasingly
larger amounts for the royal flush until it hits.
In order to answer the question we need to look at how the overall paybacks
for these two different machines are computed. Let's focus first on the popular
jacks-or-better game that pays 4,000 coins for a max coin payout for the royal
flush.
One of the highest payback jacks-or-better machine is known as a 9/6 machine
because it pays 9 coins for a full house and 6 coins for a flush (per coin played).
These machines pay back 99.54% with expert play. The important point to remember,
however, is that the 4,000 coin payout for the royal flush represents about
2% of the 99.54%. In other words until you hit a royal flush the machines overall
payback will be 2% less than the 99.54% or about 97.5%.
Let's compare what happens on a progressive machine while you are waiting for
that royal flush to hit. On these machines your overall payback is about 95.29%
plus the payback for the progressive royal flush jackpot. The latter of course
continuously increases as more players play the progressive machines. Generally
casinos will allocate between 0.1 to 0.5% of the total coins played toward the
progressive jackpot.
There is a quick calculation that you can use to determine how much extra payback
you'll get for different jackpot amounts. For a quarter machine, take the amount
of the progressive jackpot and divide by $1.25 then multiply the result by 0.00248.
Add the result to the 95.29% base payback to compute the overall return. (The
$1.25 is the amount you would bet per handle pull and the .00248 is the probability
of hitting a royal flush).
Suppose the progressive jackpot on a quarter video poker machine was $2,000.
To calculate the overall return for the machine divide the $2,000 by $1.25 and
then multiply by .00248. Your answer should be 3.96. Add that to 95.29% and
you arrive at a 99.25% overall return.
Using the equation you can do all sorts of neat calculations. For example how
much does the royal jackpot amount need to be in order for the machines overall
return to be 100%. If you use the equation you'll arrive at the result that
the jackpot needs to at $2,375 for the machines overall return to be 100%. When
the jackpot exceeds this amount the machines overall return will be greater
than 100%.
When does the overall return on an 8/5 progressive machine equal the return
of a 9/6 standard jacks-or-bettor machine? We know the latter is 99.54% and
by using the above equation you can calculate that when the progressive jackpot
is at $2132 the overall return is the same. Therefore as a general rule you
are better off playing a standard 9/6 jacks-or-better machine with perfect play
rather than an 8/5 progressive if the jackpot is less than $2132. However, if
you find an 8/5 progressive with a jackpot exceeding $2132 then you are better
off playing the progressive because the machines overall return is higher.
One caveat however. Because the royal flush payout on progressives account for
a bigger percentage of a machines overall return, until you hit the royal flush
your bankroll will be gradually dwindling. Of course you'll recoup your losses
when the royal finally hits. But statistically royal flushes only hit,
on average, about once every 40,000 hands. You may get lucky and hit one or
more royal flushes before the 40,000 hand cycle or it make take you longer than
40,000 hands before one shows. Therefore, don't be surprised if you end up with
a lot of individual losing sessions when you play the progressives. The drain
on your bankroll between royal flushes will be greater than the standard
9/6 machines but that is the price you pay for the extra money you will win
when you hit the royal on a progressive machine.
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Henry Tamburin is one of America's premier casino gambling writers and the author
of his latest book Henry Tamburin On Casino Gambling - The Best of The
Best plus 6 other best-selling books. For a free catalog call
1-888-353-3234 or visit his web site for casino players at http://www.smartgaming.com.
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